Sales Forecasting for Big Mart Using XGBoost Regression — A Machine Learning Approach

 

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🔍 Project Overview

This project focuses on predicting sales for Big Mart stores across India using historical data. I built a machine learning model that analyzes factors like product price, store type, location, and promotions to forecast future sales with greater accuracy.

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🎯 Business Problem

Big Mart needed a reliable way to forecast sales to:

• Avoid overstocking and stockouts

• Optimize inventory and staffing

• Plan promotions more effectively

Using machine learning helps make smarter, data-driven decisions.

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🛠 Tools & Techniques Used

• Python + Google Colab

• Libraries: Pandas, Seaborn, Matplotlib, XGBoost, Scikit-learn

• Model Used: XGBoost Regressor

• Data Source: Kaggle – Big Mart Sales Dataset

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⚙️ Key Steps I Followed

1. Data cleaning and handling missing values

2. Feature encoding (Label Encoding for categories)

3. Exploratory Data Analysis using Seaborn

4. Model training with XGBoost

5. Evaluation using R² Score (Train: 0.87, Test: 0.51)

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📊 Key Findings

• Higher MRP items tend to have more sales

• Larger supermarkets in Tier 1 cities perform better

• Product visibility alone doesn't drive sales

• Holidays and promotions create strong seasonal effects

📈  Visuals findings

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🤖 ML Model Performance

• XGBoost Regressor showed strong predictive power on training data

• Test R² score: ~0.51 — good baseline with room for feature improvements

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For code and more information

Click Link : 📄 View Full Project Report (PDF)

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🧠 Final Thoughts

This project helped me understand how machine learning models can be used in retail to improve decision-making. I’d love to extend this by:

• Adding external factors (like weather or holidays)

• Deploying the model into a dashboard

• Exploring deep learning-based forecasting